A stochastic analysis of the long tern rainfall of Batticaloa in relation to crop-climatic patterns

Abstract

Long term monthly rainfall records (1870-1985) was subjected to statistical analysis known as 'Markov Chain Modelling'. This work in the field of 'Stochastic Analysis' proved to be a very valuable technique in Agricultural Planning. Long-term data series has been classified into several states or levels of rainfall by using various degrees of standard deviations. The long-term probabilities obtained for classified states give much insight about the data series and this classification could be correlated effectively with crop production. It is also found that this classification very much suites with paddy cultivation in the Batticaloa district and our findings will be helpful for water resources management in the future.